Finish finish Term B

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
2019
Ira Pohl
TIM Feb 21, 2019

Talk
What is AI?
A brief history
Use in Industry
Is AI an existential Threat
Future
UCSC work

What is AI?
AI – a science/engineering of intelligence
In analogy to aeronautical engineering/flying
AI – model of “human/cognitive” system
Is done as a theory of human intelligence

Acting humanly: Turing Test
Turing (1950) “Computing machinery and intelligence”:
Predicted that by 2000, a machine might have a 30% chance of fooling a lay person for 5 minutes
Anticipated most major arguments against AI
Loebner Prize
SIRI(Apple) Cortana(Microsoft) OK GOOGL(Alphabet)
Alexa(Amazon)

Thinking humanly: cognitive modeling
1960s “cognitive revolution”: information-processing psychology Newell and Simon GPS
Requires scientific theories of internal activities of the brain
— How to validate? Requires
1) Predicting and testing behavior of human subjects (top-down)
or 2) Direct identification from neurological data (bottom-up)

Thinking rationally: “laws of thought”
Several Greek schools developed various forms of logic: notation and rules of derivation for thoughts;
Direct line through mathematics and philosophy to modern AI
-Leibnitz,Boole
Kleene, Church, Turing – McCarthy, Robinson

AI prehistory
Philosophy Logic, methods of reasoning, mind as physical
system foundations of learning, language,
rationality
Mathematics Formal representation and proof algorithms,
computation, (un)decidability, (in)tractability,
probability,bayes
Economics/OR utility, decision theory
Neuroscience physical substrate for mental activity
Psychology phenomena of perception and motor control,
experimental techniques
Computer Science building fast computers, algorithms
Linguistics knowledge representation, grammar
Statistics bayes, big data

Abridged history of AI
1943 McCulloch & Pitts: Boolean circuit model of brain
1950 Turing’s “Computing Machinery and Intelligence”
1950s Early AI programs, including Samuel’s checkers
program, Newell & Simon’s Logic Theorist,
1956 Dartmouth meeting: “Artificial Intelligence” adopted
1980 AI industry –Symbolics & Knowledge Based Systems
1983 Learning theory – resurgence (after Minsky-Papert Perceptron)
1995 The emergence of intelligent agents
1997 Kasparov loses to Deep Blue
2003 iRobot – Roomba, Pacbot510
2011 Google Car –self driving 300,000 miles
2011 MOOCs – autograded classes, edX software
2014 Hawking “spell the end of the Human race” –BBC
2015 Google AlphaGo beats European champion-using learning
2016 IBM Watson does oncology (having won Jeopardy)
2017 Okay GOOGLE, Nest, Alexa – AI runs the home
2018 ALPHA-GO learns chess in two hours and beats STOCKFISH
2018 Protein Folding-Deepmind alpha-fold Dec 2018

Riba Description
RIBA — short for “Robot for Interactive Body Assistance” — was developed by researchers at Japan’s Institute of Physical and Chemical Research (RIKEN) and Tokai Rubber Industries, Ltd. (TRI). Designed primarily to assist nurses by lifting patients in and out of their beds and wheelchairs (as well as on and off the toilet), the 180-kilogram (400-lb) robot can safely pick up and carry people weighing as much as 61 kilograms (135 lbs).

RIBA -2008 Nurse Robot

Skilled Work without the Worker
NYT_ Aug 18, 2012 by John Markoff
Take the cavernous solar-panel factory run by Flextronics in Milpitas, south of San Francisco. A large banner proudly proclaims “Bringing Jobs & Manufacturing Back to California!”
Yet in the state-of-the-art plant, where the assembly line runs 24 hours a day, seven days a week, there are robots everywhere and few human workers. All of the heavy lifting and almost all of the precise work is done by robots that string together solar cells and seal them under glass. The human workers do things like trimming excess material, threading wires and screwing a handful of fasteners into a simple frame for each panel.

GO- Learning/MC
Go Program is now (Google Go program European Champ) about to surpass human ability
How: learning, big data, MC computation;
Distinctly not “human” cognition
Implication: Machine Intelligence is surpassing human ability in ways that humans cannot “understand”

State of the art
Deep Blue defeated the reigning world chess champion Garry Kasparov in 1997 -current best 3100+ vs 2800 for humans
Proved a mathematical conjecture (Robbins conjecture) unsolved for decades 1996 by EQP
No hands across America (driving autonomously 98% of the time from Pittsburgh to San Diego) in 1995 -2005 132mile unknown terrain-completely autonomous
During the 1991 Gulf War, US forces deployed an AI logistics planning and scheduling program that involved up to 50,000 vehicles, cargo, and people
Roomba 2002 > Now pet hair version, mopping, eaves, windows
RIBA 2007
IBM WATSON- 2011 – wins Jeopardy against all time champs
Google robot Car 2012 300,000 miles Now >> 1,000,000

Achievements
LISP, Time Sharing
Games – early space war games
Intellectual Games – mastery in Chess, checkers, Hex, othello, backgammon, scrabble- and now GO and Poker
MACSYMA –Mathematica, MATLAB
DENDRAL(chemistry, medicine … experts)
WATSON-IBM
Robotics
Speech and Handwriting recognition (SIRI)

Large trends
Big data and learning- google can translate effectively between natural languages;
Big Computation- monte carlo simulations with simple metrics can outperform humans with deep knowledge

Yet to come
Will humans need to work?
GO store in Seattle –Amazon no cashiers
TESLA –autopilot for Semis
3.5 million cashier jobs, 5million driving jobs
Will their be a “singularity”
Is there an existential threat?
If work and intelligence do not define us; what does?

Baxter – $3.00 per hour
Rodney Brooks : general purpose trainable indutrial robot: cost $22,000.

AI reads minds??

‘MIND-READING’ ALGORITHM DECODES THE PICTURES IN YOUR HEAD

Researchers from ATR Computational Neuroscience Laboratories and Kyoto University in Japan developed a deep learning-based algorithm that can generate images from brain activity.

CYBORGS
AI HELPS AMPUTEE PLAY PIANO FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2012

Georgia Institute of Technology researchers developed an ultrasonic sensor that allows amputees to control individual fingers on a prosthetic hand.

UCSC AI-and related
Pohl- Heuristic Search, Should Robots have Nuclear ARMs
Getoor- Big Data Inference
Mateas-Games Intelligent dialog for characters,Façade Interactive drama
Helmbold, Warmuth, Haussler- effective learning algorithms
Elkaim- Autonomous Sailboat > now a degree program
Lots of new people since I retired – check web pages

CSE170
Winter 2020
02/06/2020

CSE 170 Term Paper A: Instructions for creating “Term Paper, Part A”
(due in canvas on 02/13/2020)

First, select one topic from the first four (including today’s) presentations in Winter
2020:
​1. Water Resource Management and Information Technology

Professor Brent Haddad, 01/16/20.

2. What Drives Venture Capital
Paul Vroomen, VC Partner & UCSC PhD
Alumnus, 01/23/20

3. A Customer-Centric approach to Product Development
Tanguy Leborgne, Vice-President, Plantronics
01/30/20

4. Technology Management: A CIO Perspective
Tom Gill, former CIO, Plantronics
02/06/20

For the term-paper topic you have selected write a ​1200-1500 word draft (5-7 double-spaced
pages) ​using the process and structure described below:

Outline: ​Before writing the paper ​create an outline ​for the paper based on the structure for the
term-paper described in the next four bullets. ​You must attach your outline at the end of your
paper. Carefully ​read the next four bullets before creating your outline.

Divide ​your paper into sections and subsections, each with an ​appropriate heading​. Each
paragraph should only contain one idea, which is clearly stated at the beginning of the paragraph,
and then developed in the paragraph. The next three bullets describe how the sections are
organized.

Set-up of a theme for your paper (1-2 paragraphs)​: Develop a creative, thought- provoking
theme ​or ​hypothesis ​for your paper. This theme should be within the context of the (clearly
stated) key product/technology, and/or business/management, and/or commercialization issues
addressed in the speaker’s presentation.

Develop the theme (8-10 paragraphs). ​Develop your theme or hypothesis with suitable
arguments, supported by ​evidence ​and ​examples​. Be sure that the technology issues (e.g., a
company’s technology and product line) and business issues (e.g., marketing and sales strategy)
that you discuss are clearly related to the specific context of the speaker’s presentation (e.g., how
distribution channels are used to market products, etc.). Provide several concrete examples (e.g.,
examples of successful research projects at Microsoft, Seagate’s markets and products, etc.).

End the theme (1-2 paragraphs)​: Re-examine your theme or hypothesis. Does it still stand; does
it need to be refined, or changed? What conclusions can you draw from this seminar presentation
relative to the development, management, and commercialization of technologies and products?
What are the technology, business, and management challenges and opportunities going forward?

Use the following ​sources of information ​in writing your term paper: your own class notes the
speaker presentations on the CSE170 class website: ​https://canvas.ucsc.edu/courses/30042
internet and library research on relevant companies and topics. Hand in the completed term-paper,
Part A, in canvas on Thursday, 02/13/20.

https://canvas.ucsc.edu/courses/30042

CSE170 Term Paper B

Instructions for Term Paper B, and for completing the required coursework (due on canvas, on
Thursday, ​03/12/20​).

Course website: ​https://canvas.ucsc.edu/courses/30042

A. General feedback for the class based on reading Term Paper A

• The quality of work on Term paper A ranged, for the most part, from good (A-) to excellent (A+).
• If I made suggestions for improvement, then you can use these suggestions to revise and re-submit your
paper. Keep these comments and suggestions firmly in mind as you work on Term Paper B (the new
topic).
• On composition: Make the paragraph the unit of your composition, which means the following. Start
each paragraph with a sentence expressing a single idea or theme. Then use the paragraph to develop this
single idea (only). Do not jump to other ideas in the same paragraph, unless the purpose of the paragraph
is to compare or contrast two or more ideas. Use real examples from the speaker’s presentation to
illustrate your ideas. End the paragraph with a conclusion/bridge to the next paragraph. Finally, make sure
that your paragraphs tell a continuous story.

B. Instructions for Term Paper B (Topic 2) and for the final submission of the work
required for this course (due in-canvas, on Thursday, ​03/12/20​):

1. Term Paper A. First complete Term Paper A: This ​may require you to refine and expand your Term
Paper A based on my feedback and suggestions.

2. Choose a Topic for Term Paper B. For Term Paper B, choose, as the topic, one of the eight
speakers (including today’s speaker) presentations . The speaker presentation that for you choose for
Part B must be different​ ​from the one you selected for Term Paper A​.

3. Term Paper B​. Write Term Paper B using the guidelines that were given for writing Term Paper A.
First create a structured ​outline ​for Term Paper B. (Please remember to submit your outline within
the same document.) Then expand this outline into a short ​1500-2000 word paper ​(approximately
6-8 double-spaced pages) term paper clearly structured into ​sections (and subsections if appropriate)
with appropriate ​headings for each section​.

4. Integration​. After completing Term Paper B, add a short ​creative ​300-word section showing
possible links (connections) between Term Paper A and Term Paper B, within the context of the
development, management, and commercialization of technology. Call this section ​“Integration.”

5. Attach all outlines ​at the end. It is also recommended that you have a table of contents.
Submit the ​final version ​of your completed work (Term Paper A, Term Paper B; Integration; Outline of
Term Paper A, Outline of Term Paper B in 1 single document) on Canvas on ​Thursday, 12 March, 2020​.
(No extensions).

https://canvas.ucsc.edu/courses/30042

Factors Influencing the Growth of Venture Capital

Introduction

Many people dream of starting their businesses. There are several reasons why entrepreneurs would be willing to start their businesses. However, many of them get stuck because of a lack of capital since many financial institutions don’t lend in the absence of collateral security. Some get lucky enough to get financial support from their savings or families and friends. But for others, there is only one alternative to obtain funds and start their businesses, and that is through venture capital. This is a part of private equity capital that is normally given for new start-ups that promise potential growth in the aim of getting a return on investment. In other words, venture capital investment is generally refers to cash in exchange for a share in the invested business.

Structure of Venture Capital

Venture capitalists (VC) refer to an investment firm or a person making venture investments. Apart from the issuance of capital, venture capitalists (VCs) also play a role in managing the business at an early stage, thus adding expertise skills. Kwak (2019) tells us that because there is a high risk of losing all investment in a given start-up company, most venture capital investments are done a pool format, where investors combine their portfolios into one large fund that invests in different start-ups. By doing this, they spread out risks hence improve their return on investments

According to Wallmeroth, Wirtz & Groh (2018), venture capital is generally used as a tool for economic development in underdeveloped countries. For the past few decades, venture capital has attained substantial growth especially in the developing economies where a considerable increase in economic activities has been observed of late. The main reason for this could be the search for different profitable markets that have gone through economic maturity, given that the developed markets have shown a slight decrease in profitability levels due to trade wars currently at play. Despite venture capital being widely disseminated worldwide, but the activity is mostly concentrated in America. In this paper, I will aim to understand the factors that drive the growth of venture capital.

Motives that drive Venture Capital

The venture capital market contains three elements namely management organization, capitalists, and invested corporations. In simplifying the dynamic market, capitalists invest their investments which are controlled by management organizations, which in turn, buy a stake in investment firms for a specified period (Maula, Autio & Murray, 2010).

· Organization Innovativeness

To clearly illustrate motives for venture capital, it’s essential to analyze the level of growth and development as a result of the effectiveness of measures at the organizational level. Generally, the organizations’ interest in creating venture funds has been largely influenced by the venture capital climate. Most companies generally use the internal R&D system as the primary source of innovativeness. In spite of these systems having a high prevalence use in many organizations, venture capitalists are cautioned against limiting organizations to sourcing its innovativeness from internal R&D. Research has it that most monopolies lack efficiency, and so, the costs related to inefficiency are automatically borne by the end consumer. Napp & Minshall (2011) tells us that heightened R&D expense at the firm’s level is an indication of internal inefficiencies as well as increase in costs rather than successful innovative strategies.

This said it is therefore a necessity for organization structure to eradicate the dominance enjoyed by the R&D units. To accomplish this, it is material for entities to structure technological measures through effective approaches such as corporate venture capital. The option for multiple technological initiatives founded on corporate venture capital is common among the world’s leading corporations. The introduction of this technique at the organizational level has been found to eliminate inefficiencies and a tool used for cost reduction.

· Agency Problem

Agency theory focuses on inefficiencies that hinder contract association between firms. In this matter, both participants in a contract are opportunistic and risk-averse. Consequently, the opportunistic behavior of both parties may not align with the best interest of the organization. Moreover, any form of disagreement between both parties implies an enduring loss for the business. A typical example where an agency problem exists is the case of the relationship between the organization’s R&D unit and the top management involved in technological advancement. So, if the R&D department starts a project beyond its limits and takes actions that cannot be accounted for or verified, it may create conflicts. Also, hold up challenges may emerge causing funded internal investments to halt in spite of significant corporate expenditure. Therefore, creating a corporate venture capital initiative is the ideal solution to some of the challenges related to agency problems. In regards to this, the corporate venture capital will give the internal R&D unit with a healthy challenge over their dominance on innovativeness. Gaba & Bhattacharya (2012) tell us that challenging the dominance by internal R&D unit on innovation productions has aided several businesses to successfully achieve their objectives.

· Detachment

Research has also established that venture capital offers an inside perspective of new technology areas that can be exploited as well as an approach that allows businesses to respond swiftly to market changes. According to a study done by Maula, Autio & Murray (2010) about venturing initiatives, the findings showed that organizations which were able to make successful technological investment experienced better success levels. Another positive aspect of venturing is that it provides the firm with the ability to speed up its response to threats. In particular, it offers a quicker approach for the organizational management to detach from portfolios that appear doomed to fail. Since the relationship between the organization and the venture funds is normally at arm’s length, this is a significant advantage to market players. Because, as much as organizations may seem reluctant to abandon an unpromising project, the presence of other venture capitalists provides a platform for forcing a decision.

· Business Response

Capital venturing also provides an organization with various sources of leveraging. This can be seen in the iFund case whereby decisions made by investors to promote the development of technologies relying on the venture firm business platforms to increase product demand. The venture fund was invested in several hardware and software makers whose products capitalized the power presented by the new intel chip. The success of these investments resulted in increased adoption of the chip within a short period. All these successes are attributed to applying corporate venturing to create a network of wireless players.

· Threat Management

Another motive that drives venture capital is threat management. The venture fund can be used by a firm as an approach to gathering intelligence, which in turn assists the organization to protect itself from emerging threats in the competitive market. Gaba & Bhattacharya (2012) mentions that during the 1980s, a silicon-chip expert formulated a venture program that focused on investing in a variety of technologies. This program aimed to gather strategic information at a much lower cost. The process program findings discovered that it was hard and expensive making chips using non-silicon products. This resulted in high valuation thus making the company capitalize on its competitive advantage. From this case, we realize that the decision to engage in capital venturing offered the firm a source of insurance. Also, the alternatives that the organization explored were viable as they were protected from the risk of being faced out of the market by its competitors.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the analysis of the various factors that influence venture capital and its importance in their business world is depicted from the resultant growth, development, as well as competitiveness in the market. From the paper, we realize that the factors that drive venture capital demonstrate entrepreneurial aspects that correlate with the positive effects on business corporations. Based on the deeper analysis of the strategic entrepreneurial aspects of venture capital investments, this article has clearly illustrated and affirmed that the technology plays a significant role in the competitiveness and sustainability of organizations and hence an attractive platform to venture in.

References

Gaba, V., & Bhattacharya, S. (2012). “Aspirations, innovation, and corporate venture capital; A behavioral perspective.” Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal.

Kwak, G. (2019). What drives venture capital fund performance?. Applied Economics Letters, 1-6.

Maula, M. V., Autio, E., & Murray, G. C. (2010). “Corporate venture capital and the balance of risks and rewards for portfolio companies.” Journal of Business Venturing, 24(3), pp. 274-286

Napp, J. J., & Minshall, T. (2011). “Corporate venture capital investment for enhancing innovation: Challenges and solutions.” Research-Technology Management, 54(2), 27-36.

Wallmeroth, J., Wirtz, P., & Groh, A. P. (2018). Venture capital, angel financing, and crowdfunding of entrepreneurial ventures: A literature review. Foundations and Trends® in Entrepreneurship, 14(1), 1-129.