Project

Emergency Facilities Readiness Project

Overview and Rationale

This project is designed to provide you with hands-on experiences in performing
simulation techniques – a method that students learn to use for decision-making purposes.
You are asked to use simulation to evaluate the readiness and competency of a local
emergency facilities.

Course Outcomes

This assignment is directly linked to the following key learning outcomes from the course
syllabus:

CO1: Use descriptive, Heuristic and prescriptive analysis to drive business strategies
and actions

CO3: Analyze the role of analytics in supporting decision making for various other
stakeholder groups within and outside of your organization

Assignment Summary

University administers at a local University have recently launched several planning
projects to determine how effectively local emergency facilities such as local hospitals can
handle natural disasters (weather, fire,…). One of these projects focused on the transport of
disaster victims from the campus to the five major hospitals in the area 1:

(i) Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center

(ii) Tufts Medical Center

(iii) Massachusetts General Hospital

(iv) Boston Medical Center

(v) Brigham and Women’s Hospital

The project team would like to determine how many victims each hospital might expect in
a disaster, and how long it would take to transport victims to the hospitals. However,
because of lack of historical data on disasters in the area, the project team have decided to

assume that the total number of victims is best approximated by a triangular probability
distribution with a minimum and a maximum of respectively 20 and 300 victims, and with
a peak of 80 victims.

The emergency facilities and capabilities at the five hospitals vary. The following table
describes how victims will be distributed to the hospitals in the event of a disaster
situation:

Hospital
Allocation of Disaster

Victims

Beth Israel Medical 30%

Tufts Medical 15%

Massachusetts General 15%

Boston Medical 20%

Brigham and Women’s 20%

The proximity of the hospitals to the university campus also varies. It is estimated that the
transport times to each of the hospitals is exponentially distributed with a certain average
that depends on that hospital. The following table indicates the average of the transport
time for each hospital.

Hospital Average in Minutes

Beth Israel Medical 5

Tufts Medical 11

Massachusetts General 16

Boston Medical 13

Brigham and Women’s 22

For simplicity, we may assume that each hospital has two emergency vehicles, so that one
leaves the university campus when the other one leaves the hospital. This means that one
emergency vehicle arrives at the campus when the other arrives at the hospital. Therefore,

the total transport time for each hospital will be the sum of transporting each victim to that
hospital.

Project Instructions:

1. Perform a simulation analysis consisting of 5,000 simulations to determine:

a. Average number of victims that can be expected at each hospital.

b. For each hospital, the average total time (in hours) needed to transport all
victims.

c. For part (a) above, create a chart the displays the Law of Large Numbers in
action for the Beth Israel Medical. (Law of large numbers: As the number of trials
becomes larger, the observed averages approach to the theoretical average.)

d. For the Beth Israel Medical hospital, perform an exploratory data analysis of the
total transport time by:

i. Calculating a 95% confidence interval for the total transport time,

ii. Determining a probability distribution that best fits the total transport
time (in hours).

iii. Supporting your assertion in part (ii) by creating a frequency distribution
and performing a Chi-squared Goodness of fit test.

e. Let ? denote the average transport time (in minutes) per victim for the entire
process of transporting all victims. Perform an exploratory data analysis of ?.

2. Perform a simulation analysis consisting of 5,000 simulations in another worksheet of
your workbook; however, assume that the total number of victims is normally
distributed with a mean of 150 victims and a standard deviation of 50 victims.
Furthermore, suppose that the transport time for each hospital is normally distributed
with a mean and a standard deviation that differ for each hospital. The table below
displays these quantities:

Hospital Average in Minutes SD in Minutes
Beth Israel Medical 8 1

Tufts Medical 12 4

Massachusetts General 16 2

Boston Medical 16 4

Brigham and Women’s 19 5

Analyze the results of this simulation by repeating parts (a) – (e) of part 1 using the
above values.

3. In the word document, explain your methodologies and conclusions.

4. In the word document, provide your opinion regarding a few major quantitative and
qualitative differences between the outputs of simulations (1) and (2) above.

5. In the word document, explain how the information obtained from your simulation can
be used for planning purposes.

6. In the word document, explain in your opinion, how each simulation can be changed to
provide additional useful information.

Format & Guidelines

Complete Parts 1, and 2 of the Project Instructions above. Each part must be in a different
file.

Complete Parts 3, 4, 5 and 6 as part in your report. The report should follow the following
format:

(i) Introduction

(ii) Analysis

(iii) Conclusion

And be a minimum of 1000 words and be presented in the APA format.

Reference:

1. University Health and Counselling Services. Northeastern University. Emergencies.
Retrieved from: https://www.northeastern.edu/uhcs/medical-services/emergencies/

2. Taylor III, B.W. (2011) Introduction to Management Sciences. Prentice Hall. Upper
Saddle River, NJ

Rubric

Category Exceeds Standards Meets Standards
Approaching
Standards

Below Standards

R: Problem
Modeling &
Set-up
ALY6050-CO1

Completely and
concisely modeled the
problem in Excel (or
R) for each method

Accurately modeled
the problem in Excel
(or R) for each method

Correctly modeled the
problem in Excel (or
R) for each method,
but the model lacks
detailed insight into
the problem or the set-
up is awkward.

Modeled the problem
in Excel (or R) for each
method, but there are
some gaps in the
problem modeling and
setup

R: Problem
Solution &
Accuracy
ALY6050-CO1

Efficiently obtained
correct and accurate
solutions in Excel (or
R) by using the
appropriate analytic
tools of the software

Obtained complete
and accurate solutions
in Excel (or R) by
using the appropriate
analytic tools of the
software

Obtained correct
solutions in Excel (or
R) using the
appropriate analytic
tools of the software,
but the application of
the tool is awkward.

Obtained a solution in
Excel (or R) by using
the appropriate
analytic tools of the
software, but the
solution is not
complete.

Word/Report:
Problem
Description &
Introduction
ALY6050-CO3

Provides a thorough
and concise summary
of the problem
descriptions and
introduced the
problem using rich
and significant ideas

Provides an accurate
and succinct summary
of the problem
descriptions and
problem introduction

Provides an accurate
summary of the
problem descriptions
and problem
introduction, but the
description is too
wordy or not succinct

Provided a summary
of the problem
descriptions and
problem introduction,
but it is inaccurate or
incomplete

Word/Report:
Description of
Problem
Analysis
ALY6050-CO3

Provides a thorough
and precise
description of the
analytic concepts and
theories used in
analyzing the problem

Accurately describes
the analytic concepts
and theories used in
analyzing the problem

Describes the analytic
concepts and theories
used in analyzing the
problem, but
description lacks
appropriate detail or
precision

Describes the
analytical concepts
and theories used in
analyzing the problem,
but descriptions are
incorrect or the
analytical concepts
and theories are
incorrect

Word/Report:
Description of
Conclusions
ALY6050-CO3

Provides conclusions
and results obtained in
the project using a
high level of critical
thinking and
reasoning

Provides relevant
conclusions and
results obtained in the
project that reflect
critical thinking and
reasoning

Provides conclusions
and results obtained in
the project, but not all
conclusions or results
are relevant to the
problem or not all
conclusions reflect
good reasoning

Provides conclusions
and results obtained in
the project, but they
are irrelevant and
reflect a lack of critical
thinking

Category Exceeds Standards Meets Standards
Approaching
Standards
Below Standards

Word/Report:
Writing
Mechanics,
Title Page, &
References

Completely free of
errors in grammar,
spelling, and
punctuation; and
completely correct
usage of title page,
citations, and
references. The report
contains a minimum of
1000 words

There are no
noticeable errors in
grammar, spelling, and
punctuation; and
completely correct
usage of title page,
citations, and
references. The report
contains a minimum of
1000 words

There are very few
errors in grammar,
spelling, and
punctuation; and
completely correct
usage of title page,
citations, and
references. The report
contains a minimum of
1000 words

There are more than
five errors in
grammar, spelling, and
punctuation; or the
usage of title page,
citations, and
references are
incomplete; or the
report contains less
than 1000 words