Posted: October 27th, 2022

psych discussion responses

1. Although I have a very boring life, one thing I really like doing is the Dock Dogs competition with my shepherd/lab mix Bentley. For over 20 years my town has had a Decoy Show which everyone travels far and wide to see. Besides the Tuckerton Seaport, its the only reason for being here. At the Decoy show they have competitions and different vendors come to sell their unique and sometimes handmade products. I have a pool in my back yard that I actually had to build a deck on in order to train him. His first jump(without any training), he jumped 15+ feet, his second year he jumped 16+ feet and unfortunately they had to cancel 2020 because of Covid. By me training him, the probability of both him and I getting better goes up. Chances are, if we stop, I won’t be good throwing a frisbee and his jump won’t be as good as it could be. With this competition, you can win money and be placed in higher competitions. Although I am not in it for the money, it sure is an added bonus. 

2. The reasoning of probability is to find out the maximum percentage of the occurrence for an event. By using probability, people can accurately understand the likelihood of an event. There are many examples in my life where I use probability. Coaching an 8-year-old boy travel team, I have been experiencing probability. Depending on the formation I decide to run or what position I place a kid in, there is a chance that it will work or it won’t work. There is a chance that the formation will work and that the player succeeds in the position I put them in. Or on the contrary, there is the likelihood they do not adjust well to the formation and become overwhelmed and do not execute the play There is always a different probability for the outcome of the game. We can either win or lose and this event is determined on how the players perform in their potions. What I think is we measure probability and calculate the maximum percentage of the outcome. Things may happen or may not happen as we calculated, so chance helps us to make right decisions, but we should think about it in different ways.

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3. Prior to the pandemic, as a society we would plan to go out with our family or friends. I have realized probability played a big part when I used to plan on going out. Before I would finialize any outdoor plans, I would check the weather forecast. If I saw that there was any percentage of rain on that day, I would think about the probability of it actually raining. I have always thought if the percentage was higher than 50% , than it would most likely rain and I would cancel or reschedule my plans. If the percentage was lower, I would debate if it was worth risking it and go out on the day. 

4. Every day before work I check the weather to determine what to wear. I determine this by looking at the weather hourly to get a better idea of the weather throughout the day. For example, if the percentage throughout a day reaches 50% of rain higher, I will wear rain shoes. Though the outcome of the weather can change at any moment.

5. The weather plays a huge role in our everyday lives. I can think of an abundance of times when I made a decision based on what meteorologists predicted. Right now, I will consider my commute to work. I work fairly close to my house, and I often walk to and from my job (I don’t have a car but it’s good exercise)! I check the weather daily to look out for rain, snow, etc. If I see that there is around a 30-40% of rain/snow during the times that I would be walking, I usually take the chance and walk and just bring an umbrella, jacket, etc. If I see that there is a 50% chance or higher for precipitation, I make plans to either carpool with a coworker or to call an Uber. If there is between a 0-20% chance, I don’t even think twice about walking. Probability is a funny thing, because I can recall a few times when I would be walking to work and ended up getting drenched before I got there even though there was barely a chance of rain. Other times, I would see that there was a 75% chance of rain but then it would turn out to be a perfect beach day! I guess that’s why it’s a good idea to always be prepared for anything.

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