I. Introduction
Why the U.S. needs Israel
to agree to a two-state solution?
Before leaving the White House, President Barrack Obama signed a new financial agreement that guarantees the Israeli government $3.8 billion dollars each year for the next ten years (5-6 Sharp). This amount does include missile defenses, which were not included in the last agreement. The guaranteed figure is only slightly higher than what the United States currently offers, which is $3 billion a year. Though congress had recently added another $500 million to the total making the official commitment $3.5 billion per year. Back in September, this was shocking news that was also ironic. Obama and Israeli’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had what many would call a rocky relationship. This was in part due to Obama’s belief that Netanyahu could establish a two-state solution (Goldberg). To mend US Israeli relations, a new financial agreement was reached between Obama and Netanyahu. “Politically, the spending package was partly a response to the nuclear deal that the United States and other world powers finalized with Iran in July of last year” (Green). Many questioned at the time what the agreement meant for solving the feud that remains in existence between the Israelis and Palestinians. Was the United States now backing down towards the strong commitment to a two-state solution? Peace between both parties remains distant and many are looking up towards the United States to spark meaningful discussion and provide unbiased mediation. These discussions would not only advance U.S. interests, but it would also begin the process of solving a conflict that has affected so many. To properly solve the conflict, Israel will first have to cease settlement activities, take part in talks and agree with a two-state solution. Otherwise the Israel we know today could very well change.

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II. Reasons for Change
To fulfill a mediation role, the United States
has to be blatantly honest with both Israel and Palestine. The U.S. will need
to provide them with substantial reasons to make peace. This can only happen
after both sides agree that the United States can competently mediate with the
understanding of both party’s wants and needs. Only with this underlying trust
can the U.S. successfully bring a fair compromise to both the Israeli
Government and the Palestinian Liberation Organization. That is why the
comments made by former Secretary of State John Kerry were important late last year.
“Friends need to tell each other the hard truths, and friendships require
mutual respect” (Stein). His comments contained criticisms over extensive
expansion efforts by the Israeli government. Kerry was being brutally honest
when he said, “The Israeli prime minister publicly supports a two-state
solution, but his current coalition is the most right-wing in Israeli history,
with an agenda driven by its most extreme elements.” Israeli’s took those
comments as an insult. The fact is it’s the truth.
Settlements in the West Bank have been an issue
ever since the six-day war in 1967. Jordan, who had control of the west bank,
lost it in the war and Israel was either going to annex the land or give it to
a new state. As debate dragged on some Israeli Jews moved to the west bank for
religious reasons. The international community was against these settlements
and continues to be against these settlements. The population within these
settlements has risen as depicted by a graph from Americans for Peace Now. In
1990, the Israeli population in the West Bank was around 65,000 people (Zarracina). That number spiked to over 300,000 people in
2010. This massive increase can be explained by the numerous housing benefits
Israeli settlers receive in the West Bank. For instance, 31 percent of the
Israeli Housing Ministry’s Rural Construction budget in 2011 was used on
settlements (The Price of the Settlements). It’s important to note that only 4 percent of
Israel’s citizens are settlers (The Price of the Settlements). The Israeli government is not only okay with
settlements, but they actively are trying to incentivize citizens to move to
settlements. With more Israeli citizens living in the West Bank it becomes
increasingly harder for Israel to accept a two-state solution. The settlement
issue not only makes it harder for a solution between the Israeli’s and
Palestinians, but it also puts the United States in a difficult position
internationally.
UN
Resolution 2334 states that Israel must, “immediately and completely cease all
settlement activities in the occupied Palestinian territory, including East
Jerusalem, and that it fully respect all of its legal obligations in this
regard” (2 UN Security Council 2). Israel has no plans of complying with the
resolution, which is why their parliament has recently passed a law that seizes
land owned by Palestinians for Jewish settlements. With the new Knesset law
directly violating UN resolution 2334, it puts the United States in a difficult
international position. Therefore, the United States abstained from the UN
resolution 2334 vote. Due to the conflict of interest, the United States
representative declined to vote but made clear that, “settlements undermined Israel’s security
and eroded prospects for peace and stability” (UN Security Council 1).
Internationally, this situation makes U.S. foreign policy look negligent.
Israel receives 3.8 billion from the U.S., yet they defy UN rulings. The United
States government provides no repercussions other than statements that voice
our country’s concerns.
The United States does have a great
relationship with Israel currently, but that could change under a one state
solution. A one state solution may limit the rights of the Israeli Arab
population. David Shipler points out in his book, Arab and Jew, that Israel has responded to Arab population concerns
before. In 1976 a theory was proven true when funds from the Interior Ministry
started to become limited, while rules started to become over bearing in the
Israeli town of Migdal in Galilee (405 Shipler). “Out of a fear that the Arab
population in the Galilee would soon exceed the number of Jews there, the
officials urged that government subsidies to large Arab families be reduced”
(405 Shipler). This encouraged many to go abroad and not return. It was also
suggested that, “authorities begin a harsh crackdown on Arabs who evade income
taxes, that the number of Arab employees in Jewish-owned enterprises be
restricted, and that increased surveillance be conducted of the Communist Party
and other politically recalcitrant groups” (405 Shipler). This example shows
that when Arab population threatened Jewish nationalism, the Israeli government
had no problem limiting aid and creating new restrictions that discriminate
against Israeli Arabs. A one state solution assumes that Israeli will control
all the land and grant full citizenship to all the occupants of that land. With
1.7 million Arabs living in Gaza (World Fact Book Gaza), and 2.1 million living
in the West Bank this problem will inevitably arise (World Fact Book West Bank).
Israel has a population of 8.1 million people (World Fact Book Israel). Out of
those 8.1 million people, 25 percent mostly view themselves as Arabs, meaning
the actual Jewish population of Israeli stands just over 6 million Jews (World
Fact Book Israel). If Israel accepts a one state solution, the Arab population
would rival the Jewish population with 5.8 million Arabs. These numbers should
be alarming to Israel, but right wing politicians in Knesset continue to
bolster the one state option. This was the point John Kerry was trying to make.
Since the Israeli government is a democracy, Arab citizens under a one state
solution would be able to vote for their candidates and their interests. This
would undoubtedly change the state Israel and may even undermine its Jewish
status. Would the Jewish elites allow this to happen?
To answer the question, it’s important to look
at the Zionist movement. In the early 1900’s, Jewish people started to agree
with the idea that the Jewish people needed their own state. Jews had always
been persecuted and many believed this was the only solution to the problem.
After World War I, the British Mandate for Palestine allowed Jews to populate
the lands. Zionism was cemented as a must after World War II. The holocaust
showed not only to the Jews, but the world that these people needed their own
Jewish state. The foundation that is Israel rests on the fact that they are a Jewish
state. It is the one factor that many believe cannot change. If the Israeli
government wants to prevent the inevitable change that would happen under a one
state solution, they would have to limit the rights of Arab citizens. Otherwise
Israel starts becoming influenced by people they view as their counterparts. Without
equal rights for all, Israel suddenly isn’t a democracy. This compromises the
United States’ position in the middle east and eliminates the only democracy
that exists in the region. Without a democracy, the United States would likely
cease relations with the country. This conclusion is based on reasonable
assumptions that most likely would transpire. To avoid this scenario a two-state
solution is necessary not only for Israel’s sake, but also for the U.S. It’s
important to understand what a one state solution could do to Israel and how
that might impact the United States.
Currently Israel is on the path towards a one
state solution using government funds and resources to promote settlements in
the West Bank. The United States needs to step up and tell Israel that there
will be consequences if you do not comply with UN law. Acting against international
law is a serious offense and it also jeopardizes United States relations
towards the international community. Israel depends on the funding received
each year from the United States, which is why officials should consider taking
that money away. Israel currently has no interest in negotiations. To bring
them to the table, you would likely have to take measures against their
funding.
Solving the settlement issue is only one step
towards peace between Israel and the Palestinian people. With this issue aside,
reasonable talks can now occur. The Palestinian Liberation Organization has
already agreed to the 1967 borders. Of course, discussion around settlers would
ensue as well as issues like Hamas and Gaza. What is crucial though is that
discussions would be taking place. The theatrical ball is in Israel’s court.
The United States needs to do its part and spark talks that can solve this conflict,
which would end years of violence but would also improve U.S. relations in the
area. Israel must comply with a two-state solution. Otherwise there will be no
talks.
III. Policy Options
A congressional report on Israeli relations, written by Jim Zanotti, was released earlier this year suggesting there could be at least four possible initiatives that congress and President Donald Trump could act on. One action that could be taken is either increase or decrease U.S aid towards Israel and Palestine (CRS REPORT 2017. Another option could be the formation of a U.S. policy towards a two-state solution (CRS REPORT 2017). The United States could rely on the international community like the United Nations to help solve the conflict (CRS REPORT 2017). The final initiative stated in the report states that the U.S. could ask other regional or international actors to help solve the conflict (CRS REPORT 2017). There are a couple of other options the United States has that the congressional report doesn’t touch on. The most obvious option would be to do nothing. Trump and the administrations could ignore the conflict and focus on the other facets that surround U.S. Israel policy. Another option would be to advocate for a one state solution, which above has been stated as a risky option. While there are a lot of options, they can be mixed and matched to formulate the correct approach for the current administration on U.S. Israeli Policy.
The first option, which is
likely to happen, is continue to do nothing. Within the congressional report,
it explains that early signs within the Trump administration has looked less
engaged with regards towards the settlement activities (CRS REPORT 2017). It
also says that other relevant actors do not expect the U.S. to intervene (CRS
REPORT 2017). Side effects of doing nothing could result in a wide variety of
action. With no deal in sight between both sides, doing nothing could result in
a third intifada. Hamas and PLO supporters could join forces and attempt to
cause havoc for the Israeli government. A third intifada would likely have
little impact on the U.S. It would be doubtful that troops would be deployed to
aid Israel. There could be a budget proposal that would temporarily give Israel
more money to aid in their fight. A doubtful but possible reaction could come
from the PLO leadership. With the United States turning a blind eye the PLO may
give up and succumb to Netanyahu’s recent demands. First Palestinian leadership
must recognize Israel as a Jewish State. Second, agreement that Israel has the
right to an indefinite security presence in the Jordan Valley area of the West
Bank. This would be extremely unlikely but could be possible. If it does happen
you should expect Palestinians to turn against their leadership. Another likely
effect is the continuation of settlement building in the West Bank, which only
makes a two-solution harder. Doing nothing would be the correct response for
the administration if they viewed the conflict as not important, or if they saw
no issues with a one-state solution.
Another option is to get
Israel to the table to negotiate for a two-state solution. A two-state solution
is the plan that is widely praised by the international community. It would
create a Palestinian state within the West Bank and Gaza. Choosing this option
would likely result in U.S. pressure on the Israeli government. The U.S. could
push Israel to negotiate with PLO leadership by providing more money or the
promise to cease funding. The Palestinians want to come to the negotiating
table and work out a deal, because right now they have nothing. Israel has
everything to lose and the Palestinians have nothing to lose. Settlement
building into the West Bank would have to come to a halt. Recent settlement
building has demonstratively hurt this option. Even if we were to force Israel
to the table there would be no guarantee of cooperation. If this option was
chosen, the U.S. would likely receive help from the United Nation and its
members. It’s important to remember that many Israeli officials are still upset
about the result of the Camp David Summit and the second intifada which would
follow. The Israeli mindset is, we have tried and they are unwilling to
negotiate. Regardless, many countries do not excuse settlement building in the
West Bank, which goes against international law. This option would be praised
internationally and should be acted on if the Trump administration wants to
produce a solid solution.
Another option does exist
that would include other regional actors. Theoretically, the option would
involve Egypt and Jordan splitting up land that Israel has had since the six day
in 1967. Egypt would receive the Gaza Strip and Jordan would get some of the West
Bank. This solution assumes that Jordan and Egypt would grant Palestinians
citizenship. Jordanian leadership has already expressed opposition towards this
plan. Egypt would have to deal with Hamas in Gaza and somehow get them out of
the city. Under this plan, Palestinians would receive no state. Israel would
probably find this type of a deal attractive but they would have to convince
Egypt and Jordan. I doubt they would. It is an interesting proposition though.
IV. Recommendations
Ultimately, the United States should do what is in the best interest of the county. Israel is a crucial asset for the U.S. in the middle east and we must protect them to ensure relations can go on. Obama and Kerry have both admitted that a two-state solution is the only way to ensure an Israeli Jewish democracy. They understand the demographic numbers and how detrimental current settlement actions are. Further development only makes peace talks harder between Israel and the PLO. Obama believed that Netanyahu could agree to peace, but he chose not to. This is the solution that last administration viewed as vital toward the future of Israel. Palestinians are obviously on board with this solution, but in good faith they will need to publicly announce Palestine’s recognition of the Jewish state. Israel will likely need something in exchange for negating. Giving the Israeli government more money is an option that I would like to see. Taking away money that was guaranteed to them would be a move that would only enrage Israel. Giving them more money to come to the table is the most viable option. The international community might be willing to help contribute towards this initiative, which would only put more pressure on Israel. Ideally when negotiating the U.S. and other international countries would attend these talks to provide mediation and council. Hopefully both sides would come to an agreement, but it won’t be without it’s controversies. Both sides want Jerusalem and water resources while they differ on the West Bank settlements. These negations will have to start on the small issues before talking about big issues like Jerusalem. The international community and past U.S. administrations have both agreed that the two-state solution is the best solution for the future of Israel and the Palestinians. It is recommended that the Trump administration act on the two-state solution.
V. Conclusion
There are multiple ways to look at the problem and there are usually multiple solutions. The two-state solution provides the Palestinian people a home and hopefully provides Israeli’s a peace that has been long overdue. A one state solution would only enrage the Palestinians and test Israel’s humanity. Would they be allowed citizenship? A two-state solution avoids the Israeli government from answering that question. The three-state solution requires Jordan and Egypt to acquire land that they don’t want and people that they don’t want. Israel would likely be more willing to have conversations about this solution rather than others. After examination, the best Israel policy option moving forward is to attempt to solve the issue between the Israeli’s and the Palestinians. Action now can and will prevent the situation from getting worse. Therefore, it is in the best interest of the U.S. to do our part in advancing talks regarding the two-state solution.
Bibliography
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