You are currently working in a research wing for a standard SOC (Security Operations Center). The SOC keeps analytics on the current trends within the network. Your team will be assigned a current issue that has been seen at the border of the network, trying to infiltrate the organizations network/systems. Upon being assigned your item, it will be your job to go out and search OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) for more information on the attack being observed. This could be a single port number, a series of attacks that has been identified, or an IP address to research and identify; your professor will assign this. Your deliverable will be a 5 page APA style research report with your findings. Discover current attacks being performed through this port, or current state of a known scanning suite. Find sources, if possible, source code of attacks that are known to exploit this weakness and break down the code. List known services on the affected ports that are associated and current attacks being performed on these services (list any CVE findings and briefly list and explain). Look at SNORT rules that watch for these attacks and list that SID.
Finally, to wrap-up your research, present the current risk level associated with this threat. Use the FAIR methodology to derive your threat assessment. The attached FAIR PDF will walk you through your analysis. To complete the FAIR document:
You can choose 1 of the following topics:
Enterprise Risk Management
Risk Management Insight
FAIR
(FACTOR ANALYSIS OF INFORMATION RISK)
Basic Risk Assessment Guide
FAIR™ Basic Risk Assessment Guide
All Content Copyright Risk Management Insight, LLC
NOTE: Before using this assessment guide…
Using this guide effectively requires a solid understanding of FAIR concepts
‣ As with any high-level analysis method, results can depend upon variables that may not be accounted for at
this level of abstraction
‣ The loss magnitude scale described in this section is adjusted for a specific organizational size and risk
capacity. Labels used in the scale (e.g., “Severe”, “Low”, etc.) may need to be adjusted when analyzing
organizations of different sizes
‣ This process is a simplified, introductory version that may not be appropriate for some analyses
Basic FAIR analysis is comprised of ten steps in four stages:
Stage 1 – Identify scenario components
1. Identify the asset at risk
2. Identify the threat community under consideration
Stage 2 – Evaluate Loss Event Frequency (LEF)
3. Estimate the probable Threat Event Frequency (TEF)
4. Estimate the Threat Capability (TCap)
5. Estimate Control strength (CS)
6. Derive Vulnerability (Vuln)
7. Derive Loss Event Frequency (LEF)
Stage 3 – Evaluate Probable Loss Magnitude (PLM)
8. Estimate worst-case loss
9. Estimate probable loss
Stage 4 – Derive and articulate
Risk
10. Derive and articulate Risk
Risk
Loss Event
Frequency
Probable Loss
Magnitude
Threat Event
Frequency
Vulnerability
Contact Action
Control
Strength
Threat
Capability
Primary Loss
Factors
Secondary
Loss Factors
Asset Loss
Factors
Threat Loss
Factors
Organizational
Loss Factors
External Loss
Factors
FAIR™ Basic Risk Assessment Guide
All Content Copyright Risk Management Insight, LLC
Stage 1 – Identify Scenario Components
Step 1 – Identify the Asset(s) at risk
In order to estimate the control and value characteristics within a risk analysis, the analyst must first identify the asset
(object) under evaluation. If a multilevel analysis is being performed, the analyst will need to identify and evaluate the
primary asset (object) at risk and all meta-objects that exist between the primary asset and the threat community. This
guide is intended for use in simple, single level risk analysis, and does not describe the additional steps required for a
multilevel analysis.
Asset(s) at risk: ______________________________________________________
Step 2 – Identify the Threat Community
In order to estimate Threat Event Frequency (TEF) and Threat Capability (TCap), a specific threat community must first be
identified. At minimum, when evaluating the risk associated with malicious acts, the analyst has to decide whether the
threat community is human or malware, and internal or external. In most circumstances, it’s appropriate to define the
threat community more specifically – e.g., network engineers, cleaning crew, etc., and characterize the expected nature
of the community. This document does not include guidance in how to perform broad-spectrum (i.e., multi-threat
community) analyses.
Threat community: ______________________________________________________
Characterization
FAIR™ Basic Risk Assessment Guide
All Content Copyright Risk Management Insight, LLC
Stage 2 – Evaluate
Loss Event Frequency
Step 3 – Threat Event Frequency (TEF)
The probable frequency, within a given timeframe, that a threat agent will act against an
asset
Contributing factors: Contact Frequency, Probability of Action
Rating Description
Very High (VH) > 100 times per year
High (H) Between 10 and 100 times per year
Moderate (M) Between 1 and 10 times per year
Low (L) Between .1 and 1 times per year
Very Low (VL) < .1 times per year (less than once every ten years)
Rationale
FAIR™ Basic Risk Assessment Guide
All Content Copyright Risk Management Insight, LLC
Step 4 – Threat Capability (Tcap)
The probable level of force that a threat agent is capable of applying against an asset
Contributing factors: Skill, Resources
Rating Description
Very High (VH) Top 2% when compared against the overall threat population
High (H) Top 16% when compared against the overall threat population
Moderate (M) Average skill and resources (between bottom 16% and top 16%)
Low (L) Bottom 16% when compared against the overall threat population
Very Low (VL) Bottom 2% when compared against the overall threat population
Rationale
FAIR™ Basic Risk Assessment Guide
All Content Copyright Risk Management Insight, LLC
Step 5 – Control strength (CS)
The expected effectiveness of controls, over a given timeframe, as measured against a baseline
level of force
Contributing factors: Strength, Assurance
Rating Description
Very High (VH) Protects against all but the top 2% of an avg. threat population
High (H) Protects against all but the top 16% of an avg. threat population
Moderate (M) Protects against the average threat agent
Low (L) Only protects against bottom 16% of an avg. threat population
Very Low (VL) Only protects against bottom 2% of an avg. threat population
Rationale
FAIR™ Basic Risk Assessment Guide
All Content Copyright Risk Management Insight, LLC
Step 6 – Vulnerability (Vuln)
The probability that an asset will be unable to resist the actions of a threat agent
Tcap (from step 4):
CS (from step 5):
Vulnerability
VH VH VH VH H M
H VH VH H M L
Tcap M VH H M L VL
L H M L VL VL
VL M L VL VL VL
VL L M H VH
Control Strength
Vuln (from matrix above):
FAIR™ Basic Risk Assessment Guide
All Content Copyright Risk Management Insight, LLC
Step 7 – Loss Event Frequency (LEF)
The probable frequency, within a given timeframe, that a threat agent will inflict harm upon an
asset
TEF (from step 3):
Vuln (from step 6):
Loss Event Frequency
VH M H VH VH VH
H L M H H H
TEF M VL L M M M
L VL VL L L L
VL VL VL VL VL VL
VL L M H VH
Vulnerability
LEF (from matrix above):
FAIR™ Basic Risk Assessment Guide
All Content Copyright Risk Management Insight, LLC
Stage 3 – Evaluate Probable Loss Magnitude
Step 8 – Estimate worst-case loss
Estimate worst-case magnitude using the following three steps:
‣ Determine the threat action that would most likely result in a worst-case outcome
‣ Estimate the magnitude for each loss form associated with that threat action
‣ “Sum” the loss form magnitudes
Loss Forms
Threat Actions Productivity Response Replacement Fine/Judgments Comp. Adv. Reputation
Access
Misuse
Disclosure
Modification
Deny Access
Magnitude Range Low End Range High End
Severe (SV) $10,000,000 —
High (H) $1,000,000 $9,999,999
Significant (Sg) $100,000 $999,999
Moderate (M) $10,000 $99,999
Low (L) $1,000 $9,999
Very Low (VL) $0 $999
FAIR™ Basic Risk Assessment Guide
All Content Copyright Risk Management Insight, LLC
Step 9 – Estimate probable loss
Estimate probable loss magnitude using the following three steps:
‣ Identify the most likely threat community action(s)
‣ Evaluate the probable loss magnitude for each loss form
‣ “Sum” the magnitudes
Loss Forms
Threat Actions Productivity Response Replacement Fine/Judgments Comp. Adv. Reputation
Access
Misuse
Disclosure
Modification
Deny Access
Magnitude Range Low End Range High End
Severe (SV) $10,000,000 —
High (H) $1,000,000 $9,999,999
Significant (Sg) $100,000 $999,999
Moderate (M) $10,000 $99,999
Low (L) $1,000 $9,999
Very Low (VL) $0 $999
FAIR™ Basic Risk Assessment Guide
All Content Copyright Risk Management Insight, LLC
Stage 4 – Derive and Articulate Risk
Step 10 – Derive and Articulate Risk
The probable frequency and probable magnitude of future loss
Well-articulated risk analyses provide decision-makers with at least two key pieces of information:
‣ The estimated loss event frequency (LEF), and
‣ The estimated probable loss magnitude (PLM)
This information can be conveyed through text, charts, or both. In most circumstances, it’s advisable to also provide the
estimated high-end loss potential so that the decision-maker is aware of what the worst-case scenario might look like.
Depending upon the scenario, additional specific information may be warranted if, for example:
‣ Significant due diligence exposure exists
‣ Significant reputation, legal, or regulatory considerations exist
Risk
Severe H H C C C
High M H H C C
PLM Significant M M H H C
Moderate L M M H H
Low L L M M M
Very Low L L M M M
VL L M H VH
LEF
LEF (from step 7):
PLM (from step 9):
WCLM (from step 8):
Key Risk Level
C Critical
H High
M Medium
L Low
FAIR™ Basic Risk Assessment Guide
All Content Copyright Risk Management Insight, LLC
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