Understanding of probability is key in making business decisions. The  following questions begin to test your understanding of the different  forms of probability and the data on which probabilistic decision making  is based.

Select any one of the following starter bullet point sections. Review the important themes within the sub questions of each bullet point. The sub questions are designed to get you thinking about some of the important issues. Your response should provide  a succinct synthesis of the key themes in a way that articulates a  clear point, position, or conclusion supported by research. 

• You are a risk manager in a manufacturing company. One of your key  responsibilities is securing of property insurance coverage to provide  protection against damage caused by “acts of God,” such as earthquakes,  hurricanes, floods, etc. You begin the process with exposure due  diligence, which is focused on estimating the chances of a single “act  of God” occurring in the course of the upcoming year, as well as the  chances of two or more “acts of God” materializing (also in the course  of the next year).

  Determine where you might be able to find valid data for this type of analysis.
  Justify the use of the concept of conditional probability in the  context of your task—more specifically, discuss how you would use  conditional probability in your exposure due diligence efforts. Support  your discussion with relevant examples, research, and rationale.

• You are a marketing manager for a company that makes ready-to-eat  breakfast cereals. Your company recently initiated a loyalty program for  consumers, which resulted in a large purchaser database. The brand  managers are eager to examine the available data, which they can use to  design more effective promotional programs. Your first step is to  conduct an exploratory baseline analysis, the goal of which is to  describe the buyer base and estimate basic statistical descriptors of  the buyer base. You are particularly interested in the size of  individual purchases, as well as the frequency of repurchases.

  Evaluate what discrete data distribution the frequency of repurchases data would be likely to follow.
  Explain why the other discrete data distributions are not  appropriate for this data. Support your discussion with relevant  examples, research, and rationale.

• You are a marketing manager for a manufacturer of nonperishable  products sold in grocery stores. In this role, you need to make various  decisions about how much marketing/advertising support is needed by each  product to maximize the profitability of the organization.

  Assess how the effectiveness of individual marketing/advertising approaches would be determined.
  Discuss how historical sales data, as well as promotional response  data, can aid you in evaluating the effectiveness of the individual  marketing/advertising approaches. Support your discussion with relevant  examples, research, and rationale.

The final paragraph (three or four sentences) of your initial  post should summarize the one or two key points that you are making in  your initial response.

Submission Details:

• Your posting should be the equivalent of 1 to 2 single-spaced pages (500–1000 words) in length. No plagiarism, 100% original.