Continue the discussion by providing your classmates with additional insights, perspectives, and critical thoughts on using data to inform SEM decisions. What other types of SEM decisions could be informed using data modeling or forecasting? 

Respond 2 classmates discussion

below is 2 classmates discussions and the discussion you did for this assignment

speak in first person. Speak as you are talking to each classmate directly

Tiffany Discussion:

Over the past ten years, CUNY City College has seen an overall 10.7% increase in enrollment.

However, this has not been a continuously positive trend and, in fact, has most recently declined.  The forecast has predicted small increases each year for the next three years to closely match the trendline.  Meeting the first year’s target might be challenging and if that falls short subsequent years may need to be adjusted.  96% of CUNY City College’s students currently come from New York.  As Tanzi (2019) has noted, New York’s population is shrinking.  In order to meet these enrollment goals, they will likely need to target non-residents.  This will also help increase tuition revenue.  Since CUNY City is located in Manhattan, one concern that I have with continuously increasing enrollment is infrastructure.  Where do you teach and house all these new and non-resident students?  Knowing what so many of my coworkers were paying for their NYC apartments, I was surprised to see that College Navigator estimated it was slightly less expensive for students to live off campus than in the dorms.  I’m sure this is more likely to be true if you head to one of the outer boroughs, like the Bronx or Queens.  However, this makes for a less convenient commute.  A long trip to class can certainly affect retention which, although still higher than average, has also recently been declining.  

College Navigator-CUNY City College (n.d.).  Retrieved from https://nces.ed.gov/collegenavigator/?q=cuny+city+college&s=all&id=190567

Tanzi, A. (2019).  New York City’s population is shrinking: Demographic trends.  Retrieved from 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-18/new-york-city-s-population-is-shrinking-demographic-trends

Emily discussion:

For higher education institutions, understanding enrollment statistics is an important task as it identifies important statistics, flaws and successes for the institution. Enrollment numbers indicate how the institution is comparing to peer institutions in the area and across the nation; they indicate if the institution is successfully retention and recruiting students. Without analyzing these statistics, higher education professionals lose out on important information that could potentially help the institution overall. Using the information also allows for institutions to forecast enrollment numbers so that the institution has a better understanding of that their numbers may potentially look like, and which areas they can better focus on in order to improve their forecasted numbers.

Davis & Elkins is a small liberal arts institution so it makes sense that their enrollment numbers are below 1,000 students annually. However, the enrollment statistics provided by the National Center for Education Statistics state that Davis & Elkins College has had issues with their enrollment within the past 10 years (2019). True, they have had a 28% change in enrollment numbers over the past 10 years ranging from 755 enrolled students in 2008-2009 to 978 enrolled students in 2017-2018; over a 200 student increase (National Center for Education Statistics, 2019). That being said, it has not been a study increase over the past ten years; Davis & Elkins has seen spikes and dips throughout the past 10 years (National Center for Education Statistics, 2019). The statistics indicate that over the past 10 years, Davis & Elkins’ enrollment numbers have increased for 3-4 years, followed by a sharp decrease followed by an increase in numbers (National Center for Education Statistics, 2019). The forecasted numbers follow this trend.

According to the forecast formulated in the Excel, for 2018, 2019 and 2020 the projected enrollment numbers are 982, 978, 970 students respectively. What I found interesting was that the projected numbers decreased rather than increased in the future years, especially since the numbers were on the incline and the trend line also indicates an increase. However, since the past numbers indicate a steady rise and fall, it does make sense that the numbers should decrease only to have an increase during the 4th or 5th year. Yet, the forecasted numbers suggest that the strategic plan may not be as successful as the administration hopes. According to the institution’s strategic plan, the additions and upgrades that the College has been implementing over the years were supposed to both recruit and retain students. Personally, while I believe that the institution should put efforts and resources into facilities and external appearances, Davis & Elkins should also focus efforts on support and resources for the students. I think that if the institution refocuses their strategic plan to include new or improved support programs or resources, the enrollment numbers should increase along with some of the other issues that the institution is currently facing.

References

National Center for Education Statistics. (2019). IPEDS. Retrieved from https://nces.ed.gov/iped s/datacenter/Data.aspx