In this assignment, you will use Chapter 3 of Rossi (2004) as a guide in the development of a proper research question that can be used as the foundation upon which you will build your Final Paper. To further assist you in the development of a practical, measurable, and valid research question, read the introduction and methodology sections of any of the journal articles listed within the Required Resources or Recommended Resources sections throughought the course. Examining the methodologies and opening sections of a journal article will provide examples of how other scholars have generated their hypotheses and research questions. The research question will appear in the introduction of the Final Paper as well as within its methodology section.
Next, you will use your research question to assist in the formation of a proper introduction for your Final Paper. Provide your readers with a summary of the topic under consideration, its place in the field of criminal justice, why it is important to undertake an evaluation of the topic, policy relevance, social significance, and anything else you discover that might be considered noteworthy. You can use this week’s recommended article or any scholarly articles you find to guide you as to the proper organization of the introduction. Your introduction and research question should be drafted in such a manner as to be suitable for presentation before an audience of criminal justice professionals.
In your paper,
The “Research Question and Introduction Development” assignment
Methodological quality and the evaluation
of anti-crime programs
DAVID P. FARRINGTON
Institute of Criminology, Cambridge University, Sidgwick Avenue, Cambridge, CB3 9DT, UK
E-mail: dpf1@cam.ac.uk
Abstract. The National Research Council (NRC) report is an excellent contribution to knowledge. The
main issues arising are: (1) Evaluability: will consideration of this topic mean that few programs are
evaluated? (2) Methodological quality: a new scale needs to be developed and used. (3) Effect size: a
realistic, easily understandable measure should be used. (4) Benefit:cost ratio: more calculations of this
are needed. (5) Observational methods: their usefulness in evaluation compared with experimental and
quasi-experimental methods is doubtful in most cases. (6) Attrition: research is needed on how to
minimize this. (7) Evaluating area-based programs: more research is needed on how to do this.
(8) Theories: theories and programs should inform each other. (9) Generalizability: research is needed
on how to achieve this from small-scale demonstration projects to large-scale routine application.
(10) Descriptive validity: a checklist of items to be included in research reports should be specified.
Some other issues include the need to calculate statistical power, the need for research on case flow
problems, the difficulty of identifying the active ingredients of a program, the problem of obtaining
access to official data, the desirability of collecting victim survey and self-report data, conflict of
interest issues, and the need for more systematic reviews.
Key words: crime, evaluation, methodological quality, research design
The National Research Council (2005) report on Improving Evaluation of
Anticrime Programs is an excellent contribution to knowledge. It contains much
that I would applaud and little that I could disagree with. In commenting on it I
will take my own paper on Methodological quality standards for evaluation
research (Farrington 2003) as the starting point and organizing principle. I will
review the need for a simple, understandable, widely accepted scale of
methodological quality and will discuss issues arising from the National Research
Council (NRC) report, under the headings of statistical conclusion validity, internal
validity, construct validity, external validity, and descriptive validity. Before that, I
will highlight what was, to me, the most thought-provoking feature of the NRC
report: the emphasis on evaluability and its measurement.
I should preface my comments by saying that I will not focus on the
recommendations in the NRC report that concern organizational infrastructure.
For example, on pp. 5 Y 6, the report recommends that agencies that sponsor
evaluation research in criminal justice (such as the National Institute of Justice)
should maintain a separate evaluation unit that is not subject to Bundue program
and political influence^, that the agency personnel should have Brelevant research
backgrounds^, that there should be continuity in such personnel, and that they
should be assisted by outside experts. I agree with these recommendations, but I
have chosen to focus instead on more substantive issues of impact evaluation.
Journal of Experimental Criminology (2006) 2:329Y337 # Springer 2006
DOI: 10.1007/s11292-006-9012-y
Evaluability
The important idea that anti-crime programs might differ in their evaluability was
introduced on p. 20 and discussed in more detail on pp. 31Y33 of the NRC report.
The clear assumption is that not all programs should be evaluated. It is argued that
a program should be selected for evaluation on the basis of (a) the significance of
the program for policy and practice, and (b) the extent to which the program is
amenable to sound evaluation research. Criteria under heading (b) include:
The program must be sufficiently well-defined to be replicable, the program
circumstances and personnel must be amenable to an evaluation study, the
requirements of the research design must be attainable (appropriate samples, data,
comparison groups, and the like), the political environment must be stable enough
for the program to be maintained during the evaluation, and a research team with
adequate expertise must be available to conduct the evaluation (p. 62).
The main problem with this idea of evaluability is the likely consequence that
very few programs will ever be evaluated. On p. 32, the NRC report says:
In the most recent round of evaluability assessments, a pool of approximately 200
earmarked programs was reduced to only eight that were ultimately judged to be
good candidates for an impact evaluation that would have a reasonable probability
of yielding useful information.
If 96% of programs escape an impact evaluation, it seems likely that criminal
justice evaluation research will not (to any significant extent) achieve its aim of
informing policy makers and practitioners about which programs work and which
programs do not work. This is the bottom-line question in which many people are
interested.
The NRC report sets very high standards for both programs and evaluations. Of
course, this is highly desirable. However, I wonder if it is wise to restrict research
funding to Rolls-Royce evaluations of Rolls-Royce programs if this means that the
vast majority of programs will not be evaluated. I wonder if it might be desirable to
develop, as an experiment, an evaluability score for each program out of 100 and
randomly choose a sample of programs in each decile for evaluation, moving down
from 100% to some minimum criterion score below which an evaluation would
clearly be a waste of time and money?
Methodological quality
The NRC report (pp. 8 Y11) documents various criticisms by the US General
Accounting Office of evaluations conducted under the auspices of the Department
of Justice. The problem is that every evaluation can be criticized, but it should not
be concluded from this that every evaluation is (equally or fatally) flawed. The
reality is that evaluations vary greatly in their methodological quality. I have
argued (Farrington 2003) that a methodological quality scale is needed to
DAVID P. FARRINGTON330
communicate to scholars, policy makers, practitioners, the mass media, and the
general public that all research is not of the same quality and that more weight
should be given to results obtained in higher quality evaluation studies. The NRC
report (p. 50) recommends the use of a checklist.
I suggested that a new methodological quality scale or scales might be
developed, based on five criteria: internal validity, descriptive validity, statistical
conclusion validity, construct validity, and external validity. These terms will be
clarified shortly and used as organizing principles for my remaining comments on
the NRC report. However, I should mention that the most famous methodological
quality scale in criminal justice research is the five-point Maryland scientific
methods scale developed by Sherman et al. (1997). This has the great merit of
being simple and easy to communicate to non-specialists, but it only measures
internal validity and has a number of problems (e.g., arising from its
Bdowngrading^ system). Hence, there is scope for the development of new scales,
possibly building on the Maryland scale as a useful starting point.
Ideally, criminal justice policy makers and practitioners should be trained so
that they can assess the methodological quality of evaluation studies using a scale
or scales. Shepherd (2003) contrasted the training of health practitioners (such as
doctors, dentists, and nurses) with criminal justice practitioners (such as police,
probation and prison officers, judges and lawyers). He pointed out that health
practitioners are trained in scientific methods by persons who are simultaneously
scientists and practitioners. Shepherd continued:
A major barrier in criminology, from a medical perspective, is the rarity of
integration of criminal justice research and practice in the same institution by
the academic practitioners that are the foundation of research, teaching, and
practice…. In contrast to medicine where clinical academics identify an
intervention, develop and mount the trial, and disseminate the findings, in
criminology researchers are often recruited to evaluate effectiveness of an
intervention that has been developed by practitioners with little or no
evaluation expertise (Shepherd 2003, p. 307).
The NRC report (pp. 49 Y 50) also notes that:
Practitioners rarely have the training and experience necessary to provide
sound judgments on research methods and implementation, though their
input may be very helpful for defining agency priorities and identifying
significant programs for evaluation.
Statistical conclusion validity
Statistical conclusion validity focuses on whether the presumed cause (the
intervention) and the presumed effect (the outcome) are related, and how strongly
they are related (the effect size). The most common method of assessing whether
the intervention and outcome are related is to test the statistical significance of the
QUALITY AND THE EVALUATION OF ANTI-CRIME PROGRAMS 331
relationship (null hypothesis significance testing). However, this method has many
flaws; for example, a significant result could indicate a small effect in a large
sample or a large effect in a small sample. Nowadays, one is recommended to
calculate the effect size and its 95% confidence interval. This contains all the
information provided by traditional null hypothesis testing and focuses attention
more appropriately on the magnitude and precision of the effect size estimate
(Shadish et al. 2002, p. 43).
The NRC report (p. 42) notes that:
A Bsmall^ effect size as defined by Cohen (1988) would correspond to the
difference between a .40 recidivism rate for the intervention group and .50
for the control group. A reduction of this magnitude for a large criminal
population, however, would produce a very large societal benefit.
For many years I have argued that d values are potentially misleading and could
usefully be converted into percentage differences in recidivism. While d = .4 might
possibly be viewed as a Bmodest^ effect, I do not think that the same term could be
applied to the equivalent reduction from 50% to 30% reconvicted, potentially
saving many thousands of crimes.
The benefit:cost ratio is arguably a better and more understandable measure of
effect size than is the d value. This ratio is only briefly touched on in the NRC
report (pp. 15 Y 16), but it would be desirable to calculate it in many evaluations.
For example, Painter and Farrington (2001) estimated that the financial benefits of
improved street lighting after 1 year (based on reduced crimes) exceeded the
financial costs by between 2.4 and 10 times. The argument that B$5 are saved for
every $1 expended^ is very convincing to policy makers.
The NRC report raises two other important issues relevant to statistical
conclusion validity, namely statistical power (p. 42) and case flow problems
(p. 47). Arguably, anyone who is planning to conduct an evaluation should
carry out a statistical power analysis beforehand to assess the extent to which
the design is able to detect the likely program effect. With small numbers such
as 30 experimentals and 30 controls, even large effects are unlikely to be
detected (NRC report, p. 42). Also, researchers should learn from the long
history of case flow problems in experimental research and either anticipate
them more accurately in their planning or devise better methods of maintaining
the case flow over time.
Internal validity
Internal validity refers to the extent to which the evaluation demonstrates
unambiguously that the intervention caused a change in the outcome measure.
It is generally viewed as the most important type of validity. The NRC report
(pp. 35 Y 40) contains an excellent discussion of internal validity and of three
important evaluation designs: randomized experiments, quasi-experiments, and
DAVID P. FARRINGTON332
observational methods with statistical modelling. However, I think that the
usefulness of observational methods in comparison with the other two designs is
somewhat doubtful in most cases. Statistical modelling can only estimate an
effect size accurately if all relevant variables are known, measured, and included
in the equations. It seems to me that experimental control of extraneous variables
is likely to be more effective than statistical control in most cases, although there
may be issues (e.g., evaluation of the effects of national crime policies) where
statistical modelling is the only feasible method. A randomized experiment
controls for all measured and unmeasured extraneous variables.
The NRC report (p. 36) correctly notes that the main threat to internal validity
in randomized experiments is differential attrition from experimental versus
control conditions. This was also highlighted by Farrington and Welsh (2005).
Other problems caused by attrition (in estimating prevalence) are pointed out on
p. 30. The clear implication for me is that minimizing attrition should be a high
priority in all research projects, that significant resources should be devoted to
maximizing response rates, and that more research is needed on minimizing
attrition. I also believe that missing data imputation methods are less satisfactory
than maximizing response rates. We managed to maintain a high response rate
on the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, which is a prospective
longitudinal survey of 400 London male subjects; 93% were interviewed 40
years after the start of the project. Our methods of tracing and securing
cooperation are described by Farrington et al. (1990).
I would have liked to see more explicit discussion in the NRC report of the
problems of evaluating area-based programs. The executive summary (p. 1) begins
by discussing (a) interventions directed towards individuals; (b) interventions in
neighbourhoods, schools, prisons, or communities; and (c) interventions at a broad
policy level. However, most of the report seems to focus on interventions directed
toward individuals, where internal validity problems can be most easily overcome.
I would like to see more research addressing the challenging issue of how to
evaluate area-based programs, such as closed-circuit television, target hardening,
neighbourhood watch, community policing, and so on, where randomized experi-
ments based on large numbers of units are rarely possible. Research is needed on
such topics as how to measure effect size in area-based research and the
importance of regression to the mean (see e.g., Farrington and Welsh 2006).
Construct validity
Construct validity refers to the adequacy of the operational definition and
measurement of the theoretical constructs that underlie the intervention and the
outcome. The NRC report (p. 43) recommends a process evaluation Bto provide a
full picture of the program. If the evaluation then finds a significant effect, it will
be possible to clearly describe what produced it.^ However, it is often challenging
to identify the active ingredients of a multimodal program, and further research
QUALITY AND THE EVALUATION OF ANTI-CRIME PROGRAMS 333
that systematically varies different components is likely to be needed. It is also
important to describe what the control condition received in detail, so that it is
possible to answer the question: Bcompared to what?^
Ideally, evaluations should advance knowledge about theories of crime, just as
theories of crime should inform the design of interventions. Loeber and Farrington
(1998, p. 1) began their book on Serious and Violent Juvenile Offenders: Risk
Factors and Successful Interventions with the statement:
The volume aims to integrate knowledge about risk and protective factors
and about the development of juvenile offending careers with knowledge
about prevention and intervention programs… so that conclusions from one
area can inform the other.
The NRC report (p. 66) recommends:
Development and improvement of new and existing data bases in ways that
would better support impact evaluation of criminal justice programs and
measurement studies that expand the repertoire of relevant outcome variables
and knowledge about their characteristics and relationships for purposes of
impact evaluation (e.g., self-report delinquency and criminality, official
records of arrests, convictions, and the like, measures of critical mediators).
A major problem for many evaluators (as noted by the NRC report on p. 29) is to
obtain access to official data. Ideally, routinely collected official data should be
used in evaluations, but this is not always possible. More efforts are needed by
government agencies to increase the quality and accessibility of official data. Also,
researchers should receive funding to collect victim survey and self-reported
offending data in order to overcome the difficulty that programs might only have
changed the behaviour of official agencies (e.g., in recording or reporting crime, or
in arresting or convicting offenders).
External validity
External validity refers to the generalizability of causal relationships across
different persons, places, times, and operational definitions of interventions and
outcomes. A major problem is that effect sizes are typically much greater in small-
scale demonstration projects (Befficacy^ studies: see p. 19 of the NRC report) than
in large-scale routine application (Beffectiveness^ studies). For example, in their
review of 40 family-based prevention studies, Farrington and Welsh (2003) found
that effect sizes were significantly negatively correlated with sample sizes. More
research is needed on how to translate small-scale tightly-controlled programs
administered by high quality staff into large-scale use.
Conflict of interest issues may arise where a program is developed, marketed,
and evaluated by the same person, or where an evaluation is funded by a
government agency with a great stake in the results (e.g., because it has already
expended millions of dollars on the program and has already trumpeted its
DAVID P. FARRINGTON334
effectiveness in the mass media). The alternative is to achieve a clear separation
between the program implementers and evaluators, but, as the NRC report notes
(p. 57), there may then be problems of getting cooperation from practitioners (and
case flow problems). Support from funding agencies is crucial in overcoming
these difficulties.
Descriptive validity
Descriptive validity refers to the adequacy of reporting of key features of
evaluations (e.g., design, sample sizes, characteristics of experimental units,
descriptions of experimental and control conditions, outcome measures, effect
sizes). This information is needed to carry out systematic reviews and meta-
analyses as recommended by the NRC report (p. 44). Ideally, any new evaluation
should be preceded by a systematic review of relevant prior evaluations, so that
each new study builds on the experiences of previous researchers. Also ideally, it
would be desirable for professional associations, funding agencies, journal editors,
and the Campbell Collaboration (see Farrington and Petrosino 2001) to get
together to develop a checklist of items that must be included in all research
reports on impact evaluations. I ended my first review of randomized experiments
in criminology (Farrington 1983) with a checklist of items that should be reported,
and, since then, the CONSORT statement has been developed for medical research
(Moher et al. 2001) and adopted for American Psychological Association journals.
Conclusions
Unfortunately, evaluation research has tended to be a Bpoor relation^ in
criminology. It has never had high status within the discipline, which has
traditionally valued more academic, theoretical studies of the causes of crime
and rather looked down on applied, policy orientated research. Until the recent
founding of the Journal of Experimental Criminology, there was no journal that
focused on criminological evaluations, although many interesting studies have
been published recently in Criminal Justice and Behavior and in the recently
founded Criminology and Public Policy. There was no organization focusing on
criminological evaluations until the recent founding of the Campbell Collaboration
and the Academy of Experimental
Criminology.
In the past decade it has been clear that the tide is turning and that evaluation
research in criminology is becoming more prominent and more valued. In the
interests of reducing crime and its associated social problems this development is
extremely welcome. The NRC report should also be welcomed, since it is likely to
encourage high quality evaluations of the effectiveness of criminological
interventions. I hope that both evaluators and funding agencies such as the
National Institute of Justice (NIJ) will make extensive use of it.
QUALITY AND THE EVALUATION OF ANTI-CRIME PROGRAMS 335
References
Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences (2nd ed.). Hillsdale,
NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
Farrington, D. P. (1983). Randomized experiments on crime and justice. In M. Tonry & N.
Morris (Eds.), Crime and justice, vol. 4 (pp. 257Y308). Chicago: University of Chicago
Press.
Farrington, D. P. (2003). Methodological quality standards for evaluation research. Annals
of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 587, 49 Y 58.
Farrington, D. P. & Petrosino, A. (2001). The Campbell Collaboration Crime and Justice
Group. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 578, 35 Y 49.
Farrington, D. P. & Welsh, B. C. (2003). Family-based prevention of offending: A meta-
analysis. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology 36, 127Y151.
Farrington, D. P. & Welsh, B. C. (2005). Randomized experiments in criminology: What
have we learned in the last two decades? Journal of Experimental Criminology 1, 9 Y 38.
Farrington, D. P. & Welsh, B. C. (2006). How important is Bregression to the mean^ in area-
based crime prevention research? Crime Prevention and Community Safety 8, 50 Y 60.
Farrington, D. P., Gallagher, B., Morley, L., St. Ledger, R. & West, D. J. (1990).
Minimizing attrition in longitudinal research: Methods of tracing and securing cooperation
in a 24-year follow-up study. In D. Magnusson & L. Bergman (Eds.), Data quality in
longitudinal research (pp. 122Y147). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Loeber, R. & Farrington, D. P. (Eds.) (1998). Serious and violent juvenile offenders: Risk
factors and successful interventions. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
Moher, D., Schulz, K. F. & Altman, D. (2001). The CONSORT statement: Revised
recommendations for improving the quality of reports of parallel-group randomized trials.
Journal of the American Medical Association 285, 1987Y1991.
National Research Council (2005). Improving evaluation of anticrime programs. Wash-
ington, DC: National Academies Press.
Painter, K. A. & Farrington, D. P. (2001). The financial benefits of improved street lighting,
based on crime reduction. Lighting Research and Technology 33, 3 Y12.
Shadish, W. R., Cook, T. D. & Campbell, D. T. (2002). Experimental and quasi-
experimental designs for generalized causal inference. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.
Shepherd, J. P. (2003). Explaining feast or famine in randomized field trials: Medical
science and criminology compared. Evaluation Review 27, 290 Y 315.
Sherman, L. W., Gottfredson, D. C., MacKenzie, D. L., Eck, J. E., Reuter, P. & Bushway, S.
(1997). Preventing crime: What works, what doesn_t, what_s promising. Washington DC:
Office of Justice Programs.
About the author
David P. Farrington, O.B.E., is Professor of Psychological Criminology at the Institute of
Criminology, Cambridge University, UK, and Adjunct Professor of Psychiatry at Western Psychiatric
Institute and Clinic, University of Pittsburgh, USA. He is a Fellow of the British Academy, of the
Academy of Medical Sciences, of the British Psychological Society and of the American Society of
Criminology, and an Honorary Life Member of the British Society of Criminology and of the Division
of Forensic Psychology of the British Psychological Society. He is co-Chair of the Campbell
Collaboration Crime and Justice Group, a member of the Board of Directors of the International Society
of Criminology, a member of the jury for the Stockholm Prize in Criminology, joint editor of Cambridge
DAVID P. FARRINGTON336
Studies in Criminology and of the journal Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health, and a member of the
editorial boards of 15 other journals. He received B.A., M.A. and Ph.D. degrees in psychology from
Cambridge University, the Sellin Y Glueck Award of the American Society of Criminology for
international contributions to criminology, the Sutherland Award of the American Society of
Criminology for outstanding contributions to criminology, the Joan McCord Award of the Academy
of Experimental Criminology, the Beccaria Gold Medal of the Criminology Society of German-
Speaking Countries, and the Hermann Mannheim Prize of the International Centre for Comparative
Criminology.
QUALITY AND THE EVALUATION OF ANTI-CRIME PROGRAMS 337
Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission.
Abstract
Evaluability
Methodological quality
Statistical conclusion validity
Internal validity
Construct validity
External validity
Descriptive validity
Conclusions
References
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We promise you excellent grades and academic excellence that you always longed for. Our writers stay in touch with you via email.