Discussion: Probability in Real Life

People use probability to make many decisions. We must remember, however, that statistical probability deals only with random events, or things that happen by chance. For example, flipping a fair coin is a random event because each side has an equal likelihood of landing facing up. When faced with making a conscious choice based on probability, decisions often become more complex because they are not random.  Consider the example of deciding whether to buy a lottery ticket. You have two choices: buy a ticket or do not buy a ticket. The probability of each decision is not .50 (fifty-fifty), however, as you might expect, because many factors help you make that measured decision; your choice is not random. The cost of the ticket, the amount of the jackpot, your feelings about gambling, and even your mood at the moment weigh into your decision.  In contrast, the probability of you winning the jackpot if you do decide to buy a ticket is a random event and can be determined by probability.  For example, if the back of the ticket states that you have a 1 in 17,000,000 million chance of winning the jackpot, that means that probability of winning the jackpot is .00000005 (calculated by taking 1/17,000,000).

For this week’s Discussion, you will practice your understanding of probability in everyday decision-making by finding an example on the Internet, and you will apply three key features of statistical probability to the example.

To prepare: Search the Internet and review several examples of probability demonstrations.

You may use any simple example of probability that you find (e.g., picking M&Ms or cookies from a jar, spinning a spinner with different colored pieces, the weather). Consider searching the Internet with the phrases “how to teach probability,” or “probability examples,” or “probability demonstrations.” The example you choose can be as elementary as you want as long as it allows you to answer the discussion prompts completely.

By Day 3

Post the following:

1. A link to the probability example you chose to review for this discussion.
2. An explanation of how your example demonstrates three of the following concepts related to statistical probability.

   Relative Frequency
   Likelihood of error
   “Over the long run”
   Random sampling
   Representative sample
   Random or chance events
   Confidence that an event will occur the next time
   Gambler’s fallacy
   Probability distribution

3. An explanation of how this example strengthened your understanding of statistical probability.

Be sure to fully explain each of the terms you chose and support your ideas with evidence from the text and Learning Resources.

Provide a reference list for your sources formatted in APA style.

By Day 5

Respond to a colleague who posted about a different example from the one you chose to discuss. Respond in one or more of the ways listed below:

• Explain how the example your colleague chose could be used to demonstrate one additional feature of statistical probability not discussed in their initial post.
• A description of how the example your colleague chose strengthened your understanding of statistical probability.
• Ask a probing question about your colleague’s chosen probability demonstration or example and provide the foundation or rationale for the question.

Support your reply with at least one reference (textbook or other scholarly, empirical resources). You may state your opinion and/or provide personal examples; however, you must also back up your assertions with evidence (including in-text citations) from the source and provide a reference.