POLICY MAKING & MODELING IN A COMPLEX WORLD  with should consists of below 4 modules. Chapter is attached.

• CHAPTER SUMMARY: Summarize chapter presented during the week. Identify the main point (as in “What’s your point?”), thesis, or conclusion of the key ideas presented in the chapter.
• SUPPORT: Do research outside of the book and demonstrate that you have in a very obvious way. This refers to research beyond the material presented in the textbook. Show something you have discovered from your own research. Be sure this is obvious and adds value beyond what is contained in the chapter itself. 
• EVALUATION: Apply the concepts from the appropriate chapter. Hint: Be sure to use specific terms and models directly from the textbook in analyzing the material presented and include the page in the citation.
• SOURCES: Include citations with your sources. Use APA style citations and references.

ITS 832
Chapter 4

Policy Making and Modeling in a
Complex World

Information Technology in a Global Economy

Professor Miguel Buleje

Introduction

• Policy Making and Modeling in a ComplexWorld

•

Complexity

• Managing Complex Systems

• Modelling for Complex Systems

Complexity

• System composed of multiple interacting elements
• Possible behavioral states can combine in ways that are hard to

predict

• Many complex systems in the physical world

• Adaptive capacity of organisms allow for long-term
survival in complex systems

• Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)

• Strong capacity to self-organize

Double Pendulum Example

Common Mistakes in Managing
Complex Systems

• Quantification
• Policy is biased towards Quantifiable Variables.

• Most often, monetary quantification.

• Most often, solution selected would be favorable to the optimal economic
outcome.

• Commonly overlooks important non-quantifiable aspects

• Compartmentalization
• Second response by policymakers in trying to simplify complex system.

• Attempts to simplify complex social systems

• Large systems are split into smaller systems

• High RISK to miss interactions between smaller systems

• Spillover effect

Complexity in Policy Making

• Common approaches
• Instrumental

• Choosing between a set of possible policies

• Evaluated based on past effectiveness

• Requires
• Large enough pool of available strategies

• Effective assessment of effectiveness

• Representational
• Little more complication approach

• Series of models

• Each is assessed on its ability to predict observed behavior

Instrumental Approach

Representational Approach

Agent-based Simulation Models
• Agent-based simulation is presenting an optimal approach to address

issue around complexity and policymaking.
• Agent base models:

• Represents individuals as separate computer models
• Each model captures the behavior by each individual

• Agents interact through a network

• Distributed nature allows for realistic interactions, and makes this an
attractive alternative.

• SIMSOC

• Simulated Society: use by universities and other groups to teach
social sciences.

• Large modeling projects repository, per inventory on the SIMSOC,
in our space of policy making.

Summary

• Complex systems are difficult to model
• Interactions can be unpredictable
• Common mistakes in modeling complex systems

• Quantification
• Compartmentalization

• Two common approaches to complex system modeling
• Instrumental
• Representational

• Agent-based modeling