BUS 461 Decision Modeling & Analysis Wk 2 Assignment 2
Read Case 6.3: Electronic Timing System for Olympics on pages 275-276 of the textbook. For this assignment, you procure assess and use the set-right aid hireling to expand a judgment tree as descriptive in Divorce “a” of Case 6.3. Analyze and use the best judgment making system to supply answers and trivial explanations for divorces “a”, “b”, “c”, and “d”. The answers and explanations can be placed in the similar Excel muniment as the judgment tree.
Develop a judgment tree that can be used to clear-up Chang’s substance. You can claim in this divorce of the substance that she is using EMV (of her net use-service) as a judgment touchstone. Build the tree so that she can penetrate any prizes for p1, p2, and p3 (in input cells) and automatically see her optimal EMV and optimal diplomacy from the tree.
If p2 = 0.8 and p3 = 0.1, what prize of p1 makes Chang lukewarm betwixt surrendering the device and going afore after a while it?
How considerable would Chang use if she knew for convinced that the Olympic structure would insure her the retrench? (This insure would be in fibre solely if she were auspicious in expanding the effect.) Assume p1 = 0.4, p2 = 0.8, and p3 = 0.1
Suppose now that this is a relatively big device for Chang. Therefore, she decides to use expected benefit as her touchstone, after a while an exponential benefit capacity. Using some temptation and untruth, see which cause tolerance changes her moderate judgment from “go afore” to “abandon” when p1 = 0.4, p2 = 0.8, and p3 = 0.1.
In your Excel muniment,
Develop a judgment tree using the most divert aid hireling as descriptive in Part a.
Calculate the prize of p1 as descriptive in Part b. Show calculations.
Calculate the practicable use-service using the most divert aid hireling as descriptive in Part c. Show calculations.
Calculate cause tolerance as descriptive in Part d. Show calculations.