Abstract
The relation which Turkey share with Russia in the recent decades has been an example of truly bonding nature. Over a prolonged friendly relation for more than two decades, Turkey’s relations with Russia exacerbated first when it shot Russian bomber jet over the Syrian border and secondly the unfortunate killing of Russian ambassador which happened in Ankara. These incidents surely put a question mark on the peaceful relations of Turkey with Russia. Whether what the reality be, Turkey is accused for stabbing Russia in the back. These sore tending acts initially resulted in various sanctions posed by Russia against Turkey. In this alarming situation where crises have overtaken most of; Europe, Middle Eastern region and Russia, this rivalry may caution many states in the coming world order.

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Preface
The crisis in the Middle Eastern region has brought in its wake a perceptible shift in Russo-Turkey relations in the contemporary arena. At first, the downing of a Russian Su-24 bomber jet by Turkish F-16 fighter over the Syrian-Turkish border bewailed the President of Russia. The subsequent reaction of that incident provided a great index of the deterioration between both. Secondly, the assassination of the Russian ambassador Andrey Karlov in Turkey put a stamp on Turkey’s goodwill in the sights of Russia. Russia was once considered a bitter enemy of Turks. In the contemporary arena, several ingredients have refreshed the erstwhile tensions as witnessed in the Tsarist and Ottoman eras. With the passage of time, the interaction between them has been fluctuating in keeping with the geographic and leadership transformation. By far, Syrian crisis is the latest point of contradiction between them, representing diverging interests. This is becoming a test case for the two for demonstrating their lost-power in the wake of contemporary transformations in the world order from unipolar to multipolar.
The policies of both the states towards Syria run
counter to each other. Russia has shared a strong economic partnership with
Syria, fact being that it (Syria) has remained a major beneficiary of Russian
weaponry while Turkish Prime Minister, in 2012 called on Bashar al Assad to
step down as the President of Syria.
No doubt, there are convergences and divergences between Russia and Turkey to project their policies with each other as well as other stakeholders of the region. This paper is intended to analyse the Russo-Turkey relations in the backdrop of their interests in the Middle East, following the significance, convergences and divergences of their relations which have given rise to their contemporary role in the arena. After the discussion on the matter, this paper has extracted the role of Pakistan and has suggested way forward for Pakistan’s foreign policy concerning the subject matter.
Why Middle East matters the most to Russia and Turkey?
The critical interests of Russia and Turkey
both lies in the Middle East. However they do not tend to be the same. Under
the umbrella of NATO, Turkey is exercising its policies as an independent state
in the Middle Eastern crisis. Syria, Iraq and Iran being border stitched to
Turkey are perceived to be under strong observations of Turkish policy makers.
While Russia, not a NATO member has a different framework for the region,
particularly its need for the Mediterranean Sea, weaponry market and trading of
oil and gas is apparent. Mediterranean Sea links Russia with Eastern
Mediterranean Sea, the Middle East and North Africa. So any situation of
conflict, war or unease in these regions has impact on Russia’s political
position.
There are number of factors that are driving the Turkish policy in which Saudi Arab is a part. Turkey has made it clear that it wants the overthrow of Assad. This is the first time in its history that Turkey adopts a regime-change strategy. When the United States decided to counter ISIS with the help of possible regional alliance, Turkey refused to get actively involved unless the coalition were to target both ‘Assad’ and ISIS at the same time. It is clear that Ankara favours a war to the end of weakening all parts: Assad, ISIS, the Kurds and Iran. Yet it always preferred to rely on proxies and calls on NATO and the international community to intervene in Syria. It was because of this very tactic that Ankara allowed the Peshmerga (Iraqi Kurdish forces) to enter the Syrian town of Kobane through Turkey to help the Syrian Kurds in the battle against ISIS and this is again the reason why it decided to support the jihadists in Syria.
While, Russia is seen more as to helping its friend Assad in the play as recently it condemned the United States’ air strike on Syria’s chemical launch pads. Syria is the only country in the region which has Russia’s base(s). Continuing its efforts to play a role and get hold of the oil, gas and other economic factors, Russia’s stance on Middle East policy is evident and strong in its intentions.
Significance of Russia-Turkey relations
Under the
leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russia and Turkey signed mutual agreements
and MoUs for increasing both countries’ relations in terms of trade and
cooperation.Turkey has remained one of Russia’s main trading partners.
Both share huge amount of business in the sectors of energy, tourism and trade.
The statistics show a viable flow of synergy between both. There is a proposed
construction of a gas pipeline as well as the Akkuyu power plant, which may be
affected after downing of a Russian jet by Turkey as a disputed incident.
According to a Turkish academic, any damage to the infrastructure deals could
be significant, because Turkey imports 55 percent of its natural gas from
Russia and 30 percent of its oil.
“Turkey has close strategic ties with Russia in
terms of energy relationship with Russia, so it may be that the Turkish Stream
project as well as the nuclear energy project – which is going to be
constructed by the Russians — could be affected,” Professor Gurkan
Kumbaroglu from Bogazici University’s department of engineering, told CNBC.
So it is apparent if any sort of clash of ideas occur in Russo-Turkey relations, Russia has its hands on the switch to constrain Turkey politically without involving any armed conflict.
Similarly, Russia’s tourism department
entertains much of Turkey’s tourism industry as 3.6 million Russians visited
Turkey in the first nine months of 2013, according to the latest statistics of
Russia’s Federal Tourism Agency. This definitely adds a lot to Turkish economy
and proved Russia has the power to restrict its citizens to travel Turkey in
the emergence of any dispute between the two countries.
On the other hand, trade is the most primary
sector which both countries has shared since few decades with tremendous
outcomes. Turkish vegetable exports account for some 20 percent of vegetable exports
to Russia. In 2014, according to Turkish foreign trade statistics, exports to
Russia were worth $5.9 billion while imports from Russia were worth $25.2
billion.
This scenario is more prone to absolute gains
rather than relative gains because not only Turkey relies on Russian oil, gas
and energy but Russia’s dependency on Turkish geostrategic location is a
perfect example to say Turkey is also at gains.
Convergences of Russia-Turkey relations
Contemporary Russia did not take Turkey as an independent state and always restrained to be in connection with it until 2003 when surprisingly The Justice and Development Party of Turkey refused to allow American forces to use Turkish territory to invade Iraq. This proved to be a game changer for Russia’s perception towards Turkey. The relations furthered in a positive way leaving the footprints of Cold War era outside the door when Turkey, as a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, was considered a frontline state in the divide between the communist bloc and the western bloc. Surprisingly, given the unrest in the North Caucasus and the Balkans on which issue the policies of Ankara and Moscow clashed, these relations changed. The tangible convergences between the duos can be elaborated as under:
Turkey’s need of oil and gas is one of the
major convergence in the Russo-Turkey relations. The economic interests of both
countries meet but there are points of divergence in various strategic plans to
extend oil and gas pipelines between countries of the Central Asia, and the
Middle East on the one hand and the European market on the other.  So, they need to act rationally towards each
other to organize their interests.
Russia’s dependency on Turkey is also apparent
because Turkey might remain Russia’s necessary gateway to the Mediterranean,
just as the Ottoman Empire was in the past.
Nonetheless, there has been efforts to
institutionalize relations between the two countries which, in the form of
Turkish-Russian Cooperation Council in April and May 2010 got established. Since
then the two leaders of the country have met annually. It has put a lot of
impact on the international image of bilateral relations of Russia and Turkey because
leaders from both sides warmly welcomed each other since then.
Divergences, clashes and disputes
There have been large number of conflicts ever
since the Tsarist Russia and Ottoman Empire since 1560s. The Russian side won
more battles than Turkey which clearly indicates the significance of geographic
disposition of Russia. However, Crimean War led Russia lose due to possible
stronger alliance of Ottomans with British, French and Italian forces.
While in the contemporary world, Turkey’s
neighbourhood has been in a turmoil, mainly Middle Eastern countries, which has
directly influenced Turkey’s dealings with Europe and Russia.
Today, the changed relationship between Turkey
and Russia has been affected by strategic considerations and political
interests relating to the current reality in the Middle East. Especially the
crisis in Syria has moved both Turkey and Russia oppositely in terms of
national interests. The two countries are not on the same pitch regarding the
crisis. Turkey has clearly taken steps to remove the regime of Assad whereas Russia
regards Assad’s ongoing leadership as a necessary condition to cope with the
turmoil in the collapsed state. Preservation of its own strategic interests in
the Middle East, Russia is sensitive in providing support to Assad.
The conflict of interests between Turkey and
Syria includes border issues, questions pertaining to water and riparian
rights, religious outlook, political-military orientation, drug-trafficking,
smuggling, terrorism (Kurdish insurgency), and espionage etc.
Analysis
Syrian crisis and all the history of Russo-Turkey relations aside, today, it is thought that Turkey has created a trust deficit in relation to its bilateral relations with Russia. On the other hand Russia is also thought to have taken Turkish early warnings serious. However, there was not a serious threat to Turkey from Russia. Perhaps, Turkey could have considered many points of conflict before downing a Russian jet which was merely on its airspace (according to Russian narrative of the incident) at Turkey-Syria border. Russia in no time retaliated and adopted a political approach launching serious sanctions against Turkey.
The trauma was not much concerning the policies of Turkey or Russia towards Syrian crisis but shooting down a Russian jet paved a way of thinking for the Russians to analyse Turkey’s intentions and goals for the coming days. Subsequently Russia accused Turkey of being in business with the Islamic State of Syria. Similar reactions are observed from Turkish side as well. The war of words between the leaders of both countries have definitely evoked state of unease and unrest to their bilateral relations. The conflict however is not seen as beneficial for any side at all. Russia, despite of its potential projects in Turkey, has unilaterally signed sanctions against it. However there are no signs of waging a war by any of them against each other.
In recent decades, Russia and Turkey have
shared friendly and cooperative relations sharing economic, trade, military and
projects related to energy sector. Both have respected each other’s view in the
international decision-making process.
The issue is not only limited to the interests
of both the countries, but then again there are risk factors which are giving
shape to their policies. Turkey is not land locked, but still it’s a jigsaw
which connects whole Asia with the Europe. This puts a lot of responsibility
for any leader of the Turkey to stand head to head against any turmoil which
may disrupt country’s repute in the international arena. While Russia, despite
being connected with many states, has to depend on the market of Middle East,
European countries and specifically Turkey to constitute its trade, military,
economic and foreign policy for survival as a state.
It is clear that international relations are
uncertain and unpredictable, both are crucially unparalleled to each other and
the lack of trust between them is now a bone of contention. However, with the
passage of time, relations may grip instead of losing its charm because Russia
may digest what happened, or Turkey, which is not apparent at all, might
apologize for its act of downing a Russian jet. Because, in an emerging world
order into multi polarity, the interests of others may urge Russia and Turkey
to rethink of their relations in a positive manner.
Foreign policy guidelines for Pakistan in case of Russia-Turkey conflict
The conflict of ideas between Russian and Turkish relations hasn’t directly influenced Pakistan to take any action of concern. However Pakistan does share points of convergences with both in terms of trade, educational exchange programs and tourist activities. In a nutshell, Pakistan and Turkey define each other as ‘sister countries’, and the friendly relations of both as a Muslim state is the apex of their strong bonds. On the other hand, while not overriding its relations with India, Russia has shown great interest to re-establish its bilateral relations with Pakistan. This can succeed the idea for Pakistan to maintain a balanced foreign policy towards Turkey and Russia in this matter. Yet again the ill-timed row between Russia and Turkey has subjugating power to keep Pakistan a neutral observer.
At this point in time, Pakistan as a member of
global community, having its national interests in Turkey, Russia and other
Middle Eastern countries, has a shared responsibility to play positive role for
the betterment of relations between them. In a limited context, Pakistan may
adopt a policy of deescalating the tensions between both and suggest measures
of cooperation and coordination to tackle the situation. Not to forget, Yemen
crisis affected thousands of Pakistani citizens and resulted in their departure
from Yemen. This puts Pakistan in a situation to tactfully regulate its
obligation to work for the betterment of its own citizens while maintaining
sustainable relations with other countries. Pakistan can beget neutralizing
role to the hard lined tensions between Turkey and Russia and may need to
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